Profits from Airport to Disney High Speed Rail Line Could Support Future Expansion

Economist Hank Fishkind told WMFE-FM that a shortened Orlando International Airport to Disney World high speed rail line would rely on a common model for funding transportation infrastructure: start with a crowded route that generates a profit to support future expansion.  You can listen to his interview by clicking HERE.  The Reason Foundation, relied on by Governor Scott, suggested this shortened route as an alternative to lessen its cost and ridership concerns.  Rep. John Mica (R-FL) said this route would have some of the best numbers in the world.  In fact, such a line would draw from nearly 50 million tourists annually in the Orlando area--twice the population of New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Boston combined. 

John Mica floated this shortened route idea last Friday, but it reportedly received a chilly reception from the U.S. DOT, according to Senator Nelson, because it does not connect two metropolitan areas. 

UPDATE--Feb. 25--Multiple sources, including the Tampa Tribune, are suggesting legislators will file a lawsuit against Governor Scott for exceeding his constitutional authority by rejecting the high speed rail funds.  Transportation secretary Ray LaHood has given the Governor an additional week to contemplate a proposal presented by the cities of Orlando, Tampa, Lakeland, and Miami to form a new interlocal agency, under which the State of Florida would have no liability, available at THIS LINK. 

U.S. DOT: Florida Leads Nation in Pedestrian Fatality Rate

An "early edition report" issued by the United States Department of Transportation ranks Florida at the top of nation's Pedestrian Fatality Rates, based on 2009 data. 

In addition, Florida had 107 bicyclist fatalities in 2009--more than any other State.   California had 99 bicyclist fatalities.  The next highest, Texas, had 48.

Here are the Top 10 States on the DOT's Pedestrian Fatality Rate chart:

Finding Authenticity in Seaside

Jim Ward, Orange County's Chief of Urban Design, and I had the privilege of touring the Town of Seaside, in the Florida Panhandle, with town developer, Robert Davis, and planner, Elizabeth Plater-Zyberk (co-author of the best book describing America at the turn of the 21st Century, Suburban Nation).  Thirty years after Davis sold a beachfront lot to pay for construction of the Town's first two bungalows, Seaside continues to inspire a better way of developing our built environment. 

Town planner Elizabeth Plater-Zyberk and developer Robert Davis.

Seaside's main commercial area--a semicircle--reminded me of Celebration. However, the two developments are quite different.  While others criticize Celebration's traditional architecture for its aura of "artificial perfection," Seaside's architecture is more eclectic.  The town mixes rustic bungalows, Charleston row homes, modern architecture, condominiums, and stately mansions.   Ruskin Square is a beautiful urban green surrounded by two and three-story condominiums, many over retail.  Dining options range from very fine to food trucks.  After thirty years, Seaside looks and feels authentic.

Ruskin Square.



You won't find homes like these in Celebration.

Those who stereotype New Urban development as "artificial" should watch the Seaside Neighborhood Charter School students play field hockey on the Lyceum, or run and bike freely, like kids should.  Kids here walk to school safely.  Mine can't.  Do yours? 

Seaside's Neighborhood School--Florida's first charter school.

Davis spoke fondly of his childhood--how he had independence to roam freely, without adult supervision, unlike most of today's kids, hemmed into monolithic, boring subdivisions by arterial highways.

I paraphrased Davis's comments when I addressed the Congress for the New Urbanism statewide conference later that afternoon on the topic of Complete Streets--the principle that FDOT design standards should make thoroughfares safe and comfortable for motorists and non-motorists in the appropriate context (such as road segments adjacent to schools, parks, Main Streets, downtowns, and where local governments want to transform sprawl into walkable town centers).  Surprisingly, I made a Top 5 List for memorable quotes tweeted across the internet by several audience members "tweetcasting" the event.  You can view the quotes by clicking HERE and by using the hashtag #SeasideAt30 at Twitter.com.  (Before the conference, I had not appreciated fully how Twitter is becoming, in the words of Sarasota planner, Peter Katz, a new generation's "historical archive.")  My favorite quote came from Los Angeles architect Stephan Polyzoides: "Friends are mortal but ideas are eternal." 

Seaside is meant for one to experience personally and is well worth the 6 + hour drive from Orlando.  Photographs do not do the town justice.  Nor do videos, but here's a short promotional clip that may give you a better flavor of the town:

Seaside documentary trailer from Jillian Tucker on Vimeo.

Reforming Florida's Growth Management Act

Florida's outdated 1985 Growth Management Act has produced a quarter century of sprawl, economic stagnation on excessively widened roads, an aesthetically deficient public realm, and a pedestrian kill-rate second to none. 

Phil Laurien, drawing from his three decades as a planner, co-authored a White Paper outlining ideas for reforming the Growth Management Act.  (Please note that he released the White Paper in his individual capacity and not as executive director of the East Central Florida Regional Planning Council).  His ideas have reached members of the Florida legislature and the Governor's office. 

A former planner who worked in Tallahassee for the Department of Community Affairs ("DCA"), the agency charged under the Act with reviewing Comprehensive Land Use Plans and amendments, told me she would analyze proposed plan amendments without necessarily having visited and knowing the area in question.  Phil's White Paper suggests shifting many of those reviews from Tallahassee to the existing Regional Planning Councils, where at least some board members (and staff) would know the area under consideration. 

Under Phil's proposal, each local government would establish a 20 year growth boundary (if one doesn't already exist), beyond which the State would not commit to providing costly urban services.  Leapfrog, or proposed Plan amendments to develop beyond the boundary would require analysis and approval by DCA in Tallahassee.  However, for proposals to develop within the growth boundary, a developer would need to obtain approvals only from the local Commissioners and the Regional Planning Council.  That would ensure consideration of development impacts at the regional level while streamlining the process. 

Phil criticizes the Growth Management Act's traffic concurrency requirements, which encourage sprawl by rewarding development in exurbia, where traffic capacity still exists. 

Comprehensive Land Use maps assign different colors to different land uses, in Euclidian fashion.  A commercial designation could produce an environment as beautiful as Park Avenue or as awful as S.R. 17-92.  Phil would require placemaking--the essential element blatantly missing from the Growth Management Act. 

Based on public criticism of DCA by Governor Scott and legislative leaders, I doubt the agency will emerge from the 2011 legislative session with its authority intact.  Phil's ideas merit discussion and thought in Tallahassee.

UPDATE 2/7/11--Governor Scott's proposed budget, unveiled today, would cut $668 million from DCA's $779 million budget for 2010, slicing its workforce from 358 employees to 40.

63 Million Tourists Missing from Reason Foundation's High Speed Rail Report

UPDATES-Feb. 16-22--Governor Scott told the U.S. Department of Transportation that he was rejecting Federal funding for the Orlando to Tampa high speed rail line. The Governor's press release making this announcement relies on contentions in the Reason Foundation's report, discussed below.  This includes a view that metro Orlando's 2 million and Tampa's 2.7 million populations are too small to sustain high speed rail, while disregarding their 63 million tourists (equivalent to one-fifth of the U.S. population, or in other words, more than twice the population of New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Boston combined). The Governor also said he was protecting Florida taxpayers from up to "$3 billion" in cost overruns.  That figure, from the Reason report, is based on California construction cost estimates, inflated by the extra expense of engineering and constructing a high speed rail line in a major earthquake zone and over miles of viaduct.  (See the video in the blog post below).

Click HERE to read the reaction of House Transportation Committee Chair Rep. John Mica (R-FL) and HERE for U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood's. (LaHood is also a Republican).  Florida Senate budget chairman, J.D. Alexander (R-Lake Wales), and State Sen. David Simmons (R-Orlando) expressed the view that Governor Scott exceeded his authority. Former Republican Congressman Lou Frey stated on WFLA-AM that the Governor was marginalizing the legislature.  State Sen. Jack Latvala (R-Tampa), chairman of the Senate Transportation Committee, and Sen. Paula Dockery (R-Lakeland) voiced their disagreement with the Governor making this decision before allowing the private sector to submit bids.  Congressman Dan Webster (R-FL) told WDBO that, while he agrees the Federal Government spends too much, the Governor's decision will not reduce the Federal deficit. 

Sen. Mike Fasano (R-New Port Richey) noted how Florida loses 10 cents of every tax dollar sent to Washington.  "So the money that was sent to us for high-speed rail, those are our dollars, and now we're not going to accept our own money," he said. "We're going to give it away to others states and we're going to have to pay for those dollars that we'll never use." 

More than two dozen members of the Republican-led Florida Senate signed a letter to Governor Scott in opposition to his decision.  Click HERE for a link to the letter.  I have rarely seen this much public criticism of a sitting Republican Governor by Republicans. 
  
The Orlando Sentinel reported that Governor Scott relied on a telephone briefing without having reviewed an updated FDOT ridership study, still incomplete.  The Governor also gave no indication of reviewing an analysis from the U.S. Conference of Mayors showing a return on investment of $2.9 billion in the Orlando area alone. 

U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) is proposing the Cities of Tampa, Lakeland, and Orlando form a new entity that could receive the $2.4 billion in Federal funding, with private bidders to assume the remaining $280 million capital shortfall, maintenance, and operations.  The Spanish rail company, Talgo, stated publicly it was confident it could absorb the State's $280 million capital share.  Another prospective bidder, Alston SA, publicly stated Florida taxpayers would incur no bond liability.  Public contracts require performance surety bonds to protect the government from any default. 

Late last Friday, Congressman Mica renewed his call for a 21 mile airport to Disney World initial line, which he said, could have some of the best ridership numbers in the world.  This shortened route would involve an entity created by Orange County, Osceola County, and the City of Orlando.  However, on Saturday, Senator Nelson said Federal officials had reacted negatively to the shortened route concept despite the potential for future expansion.    Ironically, the Reason Foundation proposed this shortened route as an alternative to lessen cost overrun and sustainability concerns. 

Here is my original blog post:


Concept drawing for Disney World High Speed Rail Station

 The Reason Foundation released a "Taxpayer Assessment" report to convince Governor Rick Scott to either abandon High Speed Rail in Florida or insist upon strict terms "to limit the obligation of Florida taxpayers to the [existing] $280 million commitment...."  Despite the report's flaws, reflecting the organization's longstanding anti-transit bias, the latter suggestions are mostly constructive.  The report warrants both study and scrutiny.

A Fiscally Conservative Approach to Florida High Speed Rail

Florida's proposed High Speed Rail system is unlike typical government-run transit in that private industry would build, operate, and maintain it.  This scenario is similar to airport infrastructure--typically paid for and built by government with private airlines operating the flights.

I agree with the Reason Foundation that private industry should bear the risk of cost overruns.  The City of Orlando relinquished authority to the Orlando Magic to build the Amway Center.  The Magic bore the risk of cost overruns, which gave the team an incentive to keep construction within budget.    

The Reason report cites the negligently designed Boston Big Dig, which had about $10.6 billion in cost overruns, as an example of what could go wrong with Florida's High Speed Rail.  The comparison has little merit since the Florida high speed rail system does not include costly underground tunneling.  (Nor could it, given Florida's high water table).  

The Reason report suggests that Florida should anticipate construction costs commensurate with California High Speed Rail's cost per mile estimate.  However, engineering a High Speed Rail line in a major earthquake zone invariably results in higher construction costs.  California's Central Valley line would include miles of viaduct construction.  The video below may give you an idea why California's construction will exceed the cost of Florida's mostly at-grade construction:

The Reason report raises an idea floated originally by Rep. John Mica (R-FL), the House Transportation Committee's new chairman, to phase-in the project, beginning with a line between Orlando International Airport and Disney World.  Governor Scott should, at a minimum, allow this segment to proceed.  The Transport Politic, in a thoughtful post, "A Fiscally Conservative Approach is the Right One for Florida High-Speed Rail," opines that phasing is unnecessary if the State of Florida follows most of the Reason Foundation's other cost-containment recommendations. 

Criticism of Ridership Projections Omits 63 Million Tourists

The Reason report attacks Orlando-Tampa ridership projections as follows:

3. Comparison to Amtrak Acela Express Ridership: The Tampa to Orlando line ridership projections appear very high in relation to Amtrak's high-speed Acela Express service that runs between Boston and Washington, DC. The Florida project is predicted to carry 2.4 million riders annually, which is two-thirds the ridership on the Amtrak Acela Express service (3.2 million in 2010).  This could be difficult, in view of the much smaller size of the Tampa to Orlando market compared to the Boston, Philadelphia, New York, Baltimore, Washington, DC market. The Acela market has approximately eight times the population of the Tampa-Orlando market. The metropolitan areas in both markets have substantial tourist volumes.

The report does not quantify the "substantial tourist volumes" -- a glaring omission, given that the Orlando leg runs through the tourist corridor.  The number of tourists in both cities amounts to over 63 million people--far more significant than the Orlando metro area's 2 million or the Tampa area's 2.7 million populations. 

City                       Number of Visitors      

Orlando                48.7 million

Tampa                  15 million

TOTAL                63.7 Million

Disney World, the nation's most visited tourist destination, would have a station on the High Speed Rail route.  The Orange County Convention Center, also with a station, is the nation's second largest convention facility.  A rail-to-rail connection with SunRail could generate non-tourist usage.

The 2.4 million annual ridership estimate averages 6,575 riders each day.  Despite old passenger cars (one person told me his car was leaking in the rain), inconvenient schedules, and slow travel, Amtrak had about a quarter million passengers board or get off non-high speed trains in Orlando, Lakeland, and Tampa in 2009.  Some portion of existing rail riders would use high speed rail when traveling between these cities.  Press reports state the Florida Department of Transportation is preparing new ridership estimates for Governor Scott's review. 

Over the Christmas holiday, on C.R. 535 outside of Disney World, traffic stood in gridlock for much of the day.  While spending an aggravating half-hour getting through one intersection to cross C.R. 535, we checked GoogleMaps Traffic.  It depicted I-4 as one long red line, meaning traffic was at a standstill.  The tourist district needs options other than automobiles to address transportation (and consequent economic) dysfunction.     

State Senator Paula Dockery, a fiscal conservative and early supporter of Governor Scott, knows well how to scrutinize rail projects (as SunRail supporters can attest).  Yet she is on record supporting the High Speed Rail system.  She said that "private companies are talking about putting $300 million to $400 million on the table, which would cover the $200 million for construction not covered by the federal government."  John Mica, another fiscally conservative Republican, has likewise stated that the project is viable with private industry covering the 10% capital shortfall.  As part of his vetting, I hope Governor Scott is reaching out for their important perspectives.

General Electric, Siemens, Bombardier, and other corporations, appear interested in building and operating these systems.  They would not demonstrate this interest if they did not expect to turn a profit.  High speed rail systems internationally--including in Japan, Spain, France, Great Britain, and Taiwan--return profits, though that does not occur in every instance or in every year. 

Amrak's Acela line--the closest we have in the U.S. to High Speed Rail--turns a profit, even though it's government-run. 

Nothwithstanding the Reason report, now that the Federal Department of Transportation is redirecting to Florida $342 million in funding from Ohio and Wisconsin, the case for rejecting a Florida system has weakened.  Any decision to abandon this project will not shrink the Federal deficit, but will instead direct $2.4 billion intended for Florida to California and elsewhere.  Governor Scott is too smart to make that his legacy, given the option of making private industry shoulder the risks of proceeding.

A Smarter Built Environment Could Make Kids Smarter, Too

A study of 9 and 10 year olds in the journal, Brain Research found an association between brain size, cognitive ability, and exercise.  You can find an online article about the study, written for a lay audience, at the website of Science Today magazine:

When they analyzed the MRI data, the researchers found that the physically fit children tended to have bigger hippocampal volume -- about 12 percent bigger relative to total brain size -- than their out-of-shape peers.

The children who were in better physical condition also did better on tests of relational memory -- the ability to remember and integrate various types of information -- than their less-fit peers. 

The new findings suggest that interventions to increase childhood physical activity could have an important effect on brain development

The study, conducted by researchers at the University of Illinois, Ohio State University, and the University of Pittsburgh, was serious enough to warrant notation in the December issue of Pediatrics magazine, published by the American Academy of Pediatrics.  The study provides further evidence that a built environment creating walkable and bikeable schools could improve academic performance.  Other studies examined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have linked physical activity and academic performance.  

We have engineered incidental exercise out of our lives.  Sprawl development patterns, using dangerous highways to connect schools to subdivisions, have reduced the percentage of children walking and biking to school from over 40% in the late 1960's to around 13% today.  Partly as a result, childhood obesity is reaching epidemic proportions--at about 17% of the pediatric population--with about a third of children overweight.   Instead of self-reliance, we are instilling in our children a culture of dependency. 

A properly built, smart growth environment can induce up to 80% of children to walk to school.  I suspect additional research in coming years will show that smart growth can make kids smarter.  

Leave it to Beaver depicted an America we've lost--kids walking to and from school.  The sidewalks in our newer, conventional subdivisions are four feet wide--not wide enough for two, let alone three bigger kids to walk side by side comfortably. 

The Road Safety Paradox

Traffic engineers straighten and widen roads, then establish "clear zones" to make roads safer.  That was the premise for four-laning Apopka-Vineland Road through Dr. Phillips in the late 1990's into a treeless drag strip with Interstate highway lane dimensions.  The result: a faster, deadly road.  The high-speed road design contributed to the death of my neighbor, who lived a couple homes away from us in the Emerald Forest subdivision.  He left a young wife and toddler. 

Charles Marohn, P.E., president of  StrongTowns.org, states, "Taking highway standards and applying them to urban and suburban streets, and even county roads, costs us thousands of lives every year."  He posted  a cartoon illustrating the road safety paradox through a parody of statements he used to make to concerned citizens.  Increasingly, leaders in the engineering field are rejecting this old line of thought in favor of context sensitive solutions.        

Sidewalks Need Buffers from Traffic

My heart goes out to the parents of Patricia Martin, 8, run over by a small day care center bus while riding her bicycle on Oakland Road at Cynthianna Circle in Altamonte Springs, Florida.  Patricia, who diligently wore a helment (which may have saved her life) remains hospitalized, in critical but stable condition. 

According to the Orlando Sentinel, "Troopers are still trying to determine why the girl left the sidewalk and rode into the path of the bus," apparently traveling northbound behind her.  The photograph below may help partially explain what happened:

Oakland Road and Cynthianna Circle--Altamonte Springs, Florida.

The sidewalk, where Patricia was riding initially, is four feet wide with no landscaping buffer from the road.  Phil Laurien, executive director of the East Central Florida Regional Planning Council pointed out to me that, if Patricia was distracted and her bike left the sidewalk, nothing buffered her from traffic on Oakland Road.  The sidewalk merges with the street at Cynthianna Circle without any painted pedestrian crossing. 

A grassy landscape buffer, like that depicted below, might have avoided the incident.

Courtesy: Jurgen Duncan, Transportation Planner, Canin Associates

The photo above depicts a shaded five-foot sidewalk and landscape buffer perhaps ten feet from the road.  The cross-street in the background has a painted pedestrian crosswalk, setback from the more heavily traveled road and defining the path for pedestrians and bicyclists.  The environment is not perfect.  The brick walls eliminate natural neighborhood surveillance of children walking and biking--a crime deterrent.  However, the photo provides a good example of a more complete street that could lessen the number of parents who experience the terrible anguish of a critically injured child. 

Road Context: A Disconnect

The Miami Herald wrote a troubling editorial.  The Florida Department of Transportation maintains a pedestrian-hostile environment, Brickell Avenue, and then, due to insufficient pedestrian activity, claims FDOT regulations disallow slower design speeds and most other pedestrian safety improvements.  It doesn't matter that thousands of condominiums and apartments tower overhead.  You can find photographs and an article by clicking HERE. 

The agency charged with designing, constructing, and maintaining State of Florida roadways -- the nation's most perilous for pedestrians -- enforces out-of-date policies when it comes to road context.  The disconnect results in a grim, mounting death toll--including an elderly woman on Brickell Avenue last month--warranting legislative intervention, if FDOT won't update its regulations on its own.  It's time for FDOT to assume a leadership position and provide for "complete streets," safe and comfortable for motorists and non-motorists--and appropriate for the context.

Click here for the Miami Herald editorial.

UPDATE 12/17/10:  The Brickell Avenue controversy is heading towards resolution.  FDOT conducted additional studies and agreed to lower the speed limits to 35 mph (still not low enough for some) and to add Bike Share lane markings.  You can get more details by clicking HERE.

UPDATE 1/5/11:  An op-ed in the Miami Herald is criticizing plans for only four new crosswalks on Brickell Avenue, three at existing intersections, out of 25 proposed locations.  Click HERE for the Miami Herald op-ed. 

Even a 7 Year Old Can Figure Out Urbanism

Windermere Elementary School teacher Anthony Simms assigned his second grade students the task of creating a city or town.  Future planner Max Geller received an A+ for his paper machete town, inspired by Downtown Winter Garden, where we often bike on the West Orange Trail.  The elementary school terminates a vista (now illegal in most jurisdictions).  A photo of my high school inspired the architecture, including pillars made of straws and a dome made from a paper bowl.  The roads are narrow, slow, and safe, with wide sidewalks shaded by trees.   Apartments provide a ready source of customers for the retail below.  Max didn't even consider creating a town of strip shopping centers and highways that kids can't cross safely.