Secretary Prasad: "We Need Transportation Alternatives"

United States Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood and Florida Secretary of Transportation Ananth Prasad at the Ceremonial SunRail signing.

At the future site of Florida Hospital's newly announced statewide corporate headquarters--a future SunRail station--United States Secretary of  Transportation Ray LaHood and Florida Secretary of Transportation Ananth Prasad signed a contract committing an additional infusion of $77 million of Federal funds for construction of the commuter rail line. 

"Coming from the road transportation side," Secretary Prasad said, "I know we can't build our way out of congestion.  We need transportation alternatives."  The Secretary's comments reflected a point I made to him with a graph only weeks ago during his whirlwind tour of SunRail's local government partners. 

Congressman Mica emphasized the bipartisan nature of the SunRail effort.  He praised Secretary LaHood for resolving issues with Amtrak over liability.  He said the question is "no longer whether it will be built" but "who gets the next leg."  He showed a graph of more than $6 billion in transit oriented development around the $1.4 billion light rail system in Houston. 

Secretary LaHood summed up the Central Florida SunRail effort: "You got your act together."

Governor Scott Approves SunRail

Governor Rick Scott's approval of SunRail today demonstrated that political reality, pragmatism, and economic need can prevail over ideological distrust.  It also demonstrated the Governor's confidence in his Secretary of Transportation, Ananth Prasad (who made the announcement), Central Florida's business community (which strongly backed the project), and the fiscally conservative Orange County Mayor Teresa Jacobs.  The strong consensus among citizens and elected leaders of both political parties to build the project--from Volusia County to Osceola County--overwhelmed SunRail opponents. 

Over the next two years, during construction, Central Florida leaders need to ensure that SunRail emobodies the best practices and not ignore valid points raised by SunRail's fiercest critics.  I would suggest the following as preliminary thoughts: 

* CRITICISM #1: SunRail will compete poorly with automobiles since trains will run only every half-hour during rush hour.  Trains every half-hour during rush hour are, in fact, inadequate.  An initial--not long-term goal--should strive for ten minute separation between trains, which may require the purchase of additional locomotives.  The built-in $77 million (30%) contingency in the budget for both Phases I and II could allow for such purchases given that contract prices are locked-in.  The fear of cost overruns expressed by SunRail opponents should prove unfounded.

* CRITICISM #2: The trains won't serve where people want to go, including the airport, convention center, or Disney.  This criticism ignored, or discounted the fact that SunRail is serving central business districts in Winter Park and Kissimmee, Downtown Orlando as well as major employers such as Tuperware, Florida Hospital, and Orlando Regional Medical Center.  However, click HERE for a video from the Orlando Sentinel of Mayor Jacobs' recent comments. I agree strongly with her assessment of a need to connect SunRail to the Orlando International Airport and Orange County Convention Center.   Ideally, I would like to see the ability for Williamsburg residents--many elderly--to access the rail network. 

MetroPlan's vision for a multi-modal Central Florida, with connections to UCF and the theme parks, should remain a long-term goal:

Click to enlarge -- Conceptual Map

CRITICISM #3: People won't travel from car to rail to bus.  The need for convenient multi-modal connectivity will remain heightened, especially while SunRail remains only the spine of a rail network.  A card system similar to SunPass--the integrated charging system for most Florida toll roads and airport parking--should ensure seamless boarding between buses and rail and vice versa.  Lynx will need to schedule buses to connect to the airport, Disney, and other major destinations so they're available as soon as passengers disembark.  GPS-enabled signs, with data available on iPhones, BlackBerries, etc. should inform passengers when the next bus and train will arrive.  Lynx needs to post maps showing where the buses go.  Passengers should also have the opportunity to bring and safely store bicycles onboard.  

Ironically, within hours of Secretary Prasad's SunRail announcement, a severe crash blocked traffic in both directions on I-4 in Polk County--a reminder of how placing all your transportation eggs in one basket is unwise.

Overwhelming Community Support for SunRail Greets Secretary Prasad

Florida's Secretary of Transportation, Ananth Prasad, conducted a day-long tour, from Daytona Beach to Osceola County to gauge community sentiment towards SunRail, Central Florida's decade-long planned commuter rail line.

Overwhelming community support for SunRail greeted him at the Maitland and Orange County Commission hearings I attended, and reportedly at the other hearings as well.

At the Maitland meeting, one SunRail opponent made the mistake of asking audience members to stand if they'd take the train instead of their cars. Virtually the entire audience stood. Many in the overflow crowd already standing raised their hands.

At the Orange County hearing, Mayor Teresa Jacobs similarly asked opponents and then supporters to stand. Again, supporters vastly outnumbered opponents.

At both hearings, pro-SunRail speakers outnumbered opponents, though each side received equal time. 

One naysayer accused attendees of comprising of "special interests."  The special interests included a severely disabled woman dependent on transit, a young nursing student who intends to reside in a city with rail transit, and, at the Maitland hearing, my Rollins Land Use Law student, Logan Laughlin, who said he was suffering from high blood pressure from driving in congestion.  His comments brought a smile to Secretary Prasad.

MetroPlan's Harry Barley warned that, if Central Florida violates Clean Air standards, Federal funding for road construction will grind to a halt. SunRail, he said, is a step towards cleaner air and expressed concern over rising levels of asthma among children.  He urged the Secretary to uphold MetroPlan's regional vision.

After the hearing, Mayor Jacobs escorted Secretary Prasad to the Commissioner's conference room, where I sat with an overflow crowd, 90 percent of whom, again, supported SunRail.  I had a brief moment to present the following chart to the Secretary, demonstrating that we can't build our way out of congestion.

(The numbers on the left side of the graph are in the millions--you can add "000" to get the reported figures).  Increasing vehicle miles traveled on Metro Orlando's highways since 1992 have far exceeded increases in highway capacity. I told the Secretary we need cost-effective ways to reduce the gap.  (In fact, SunRail provides an opportunity to obtain the capacity of one lane of I-4 at a fraction of the cost of road construction.)  I told the Secretary that I hoped he would recommend to the Governor that we proceed. 

If I were the Secretary, I would advise the Governor that he faces acute political risk if he tries to scuttle SunRail.

76% of Voters Support SunRail

According to an Orlando Sentinel poll, 76% Orlando voters back SunRail, the 61 mile commuter rail system Governor Scott is reviewing. 

Another poll, of major employers on the SunRail route including the Orange County Courthouse, Rollins College, and Tupperware, found that huge majorities of workers would consider using SunRail for their commute. 

Governor Scott received a packet of more than 100 letters and resolutions from businesses, civic organizations, and local governments supporting SunRail.

63 Million Tourists Missing from Reason Foundation's High Speed Rail Report

UPDATES-Feb. 16-22--Governor Scott told the U.S. Department of Transportation that he was rejecting Federal funding for the Orlando to Tampa high speed rail line. The Governor's press release making this announcement relies on contentions in the Reason Foundation's report, discussed below.  This includes a view that metro Orlando's 2 million and Tampa's 2.7 million populations are too small to sustain high speed rail, while disregarding their 63 million tourists (equivalent to one-fifth of the U.S. population, or in other words, more than twice the population of New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Boston combined). The Governor also said he was protecting Florida taxpayers from up to "$3 billion" in cost overruns.  That figure, from the Reason report, is based on California construction cost estimates, inflated by the extra expense of engineering and constructing a high speed rail line in a major earthquake zone and over miles of viaduct.  (See the video in the blog post below).

Click HERE to read the reaction of House Transportation Committee Chair Rep. John Mica (R-FL) and HERE for U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood's. (LaHood is also a Republican).  Florida Senate budget chairman, J.D. Alexander (R-Lake Wales), and State Sen. David Simmons (R-Orlando) expressed the view that Governor Scott exceeded his authority. Former Republican Congressman Lou Frey stated on WFLA-AM that the Governor was marginalizing the legislature.  State Sen. Jack Latvala (R-Tampa), chairman of the Senate Transportation Committee, and Sen. Paula Dockery (R-Lakeland) voiced their disagreement with the Governor making this decision before allowing the private sector to submit bids.  Congressman Dan Webster (R-FL) told WDBO that, while he agrees the Federal Government spends too much, the Governor's decision will not reduce the Federal deficit. 

Sen. Mike Fasano (R-New Port Richey) noted how Florida loses 10 cents of every tax dollar sent to Washington.  "So the money that was sent to us for high-speed rail, those are our dollars, and now we're not going to accept our own money," he said. "We're going to give it away to others states and we're going to have to pay for those dollars that we'll never use." 

More than two dozen members of the Republican-led Florida Senate signed a letter to Governor Scott in opposition to his decision.  Click HERE for a link to the letter.  I have rarely seen this much public criticism of a sitting Republican Governor by Republicans. 
  
The Orlando Sentinel reported that Governor Scott relied on a telephone briefing without having reviewed an updated FDOT ridership study, still incomplete.  The Governor also gave no indication of reviewing an analysis from the U.S. Conference of Mayors showing a return on investment of $2.9 billion in the Orlando area alone. 

U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) is proposing the Cities of Tampa, Lakeland, and Orlando form a new entity that could receive the $2.4 billion in Federal funding, with private bidders to assume the remaining $280 million capital shortfall, maintenance, and operations.  The Spanish rail company, Talgo, stated publicly it was confident it could absorb the State's $280 million capital share.  Another prospective bidder, Alston SA, publicly stated Florida taxpayers would incur no bond liability.  Public contracts require performance surety bonds to protect the government from any default. 

Late last Friday, Congressman Mica renewed his call for a 21 mile airport to Disney World initial line, which he said, could have some of the best ridership numbers in the world.  This shortened route would involve an entity created by Orange County, Osceola County, and the City of Orlando.  However, on Saturday, Senator Nelson said Federal officials had reacted negatively to the shortened route concept despite the potential for future expansion.    Ironically, the Reason Foundation proposed this shortened route as an alternative to lessen cost overrun and sustainability concerns. 

Here is my original blog post:


Concept drawing for Disney World High Speed Rail Station

 The Reason Foundation released a "Taxpayer Assessment" report to convince Governor Rick Scott to either abandon High Speed Rail in Florida or insist upon strict terms "to limit the obligation of Florida taxpayers to the [existing] $280 million commitment...."  Despite the report's flaws, reflecting the organization's longstanding anti-transit bias, the latter suggestions are mostly constructive.  The report warrants both study and scrutiny.

A Fiscally Conservative Approach to Florida High Speed Rail

Florida's proposed High Speed Rail system is unlike typical government-run transit in that private industry would build, operate, and maintain it.  This scenario is similar to airport infrastructure--typically paid for and built by government with private airlines operating the flights.

I agree with the Reason Foundation that private industry should bear the risk of cost overruns.  The City of Orlando relinquished authority to the Orlando Magic to build the Amway Center.  The Magic bore the risk of cost overruns, which gave the team an incentive to keep construction within budget.    

The Reason report cites the negligently designed Boston Big Dig, which had about $10.6 billion in cost overruns, as an example of what could go wrong with Florida's High Speed Rail.  The comparison has little merit since the Florida high speed rail system does not include costly underground tunneling.  (Nor could it, given Florida's high water table).  

The Reason report suggests that Florida should anticipate construction costs commensurate with California High Speed Rail's cost per mile estimate.  However, engineering a High Speed Rail line in a major earthquake zone invariably results in higher construction costs.  California's Central Valley line would include miles of viaduct construction.  The video below may give you an idea why California's construction will exceed the cost of Florida's mostly at-grade construction:

The Reason report raises an idea floated originally by Rep. John Mica (R-FL), the House Transportation Committee's new chairman, to phase-in the project, beginning with a line between Orlando International Airport and Disney World.  Governor Scott should, at a minimum, allow this segment to proceed.  The Transport Politic, in a thoughtful post, "A Fiscally Conservative Approach is the Right One for Florida High-Speed Rail," opines that phasing is unnecessary if the State of Florida follows most of the Reason Foundation's other cost-containment recommendations. 

Criticism of Ridership Projections Omits 63 Million Tourists

The Reason report attacks Orlando-Tampa ridership projections as follows:

3. Comparison to Amtrak Acela Express Ridership: The Tampa to Orlando line ridership projections appear very high in relation to Amtrak's high-speed Acela Express service that runs between Boston and Washington, DC. The Florida project is predicted to carry 2.4 million riders annually, which is two-thirds the ridership on the Amtrak Acela Express service (3.2 million in 2010).  This could be difficult, in view of the much smaller size of the Tampa to Orlando market compared to the Boston, Philadelphia, New York, Baltimore, Washington, DC market. The Acela market has approximately eight times the population of the Tampa-Orlando market. The metropolitan areas in both markets have substantial tourist volumes.

The report does not quantify the "substantial tourist volumes" -- a glaring omission, given that the Orlando leg runs through the tourist corridor.  The number of tourists in both cities amounts to over 63 million people--far more significant than the Orlando metro area's 2 million or the Tampa area's 2.7 million populations. 

City                       Number of Visitors      

Orlando                48.7 million

Tampa                  15 million

TOTAL                63.7 Million

Disney World, the nation's most visited tourist destination, would have a station on the High Speed Rail route.  The Orange County Convention Center, also with a station, is the nation's second largest convention facility.  A rail-to-rail connection with SunRail could generate non-tourist usage.

The 2.4 million annual ridership estimate averages 6,575 riders each day.  Despite old passenger cars (one person told me his car was leaking in the rain), inconvenient schedules, and slow travel, Amtrak had about a quarter million passengers board or get off non-high speed trains in Orlando, Lakeland, and Tampa in 2009.  Some portion of existing rail riders would use high speed rail when traveling between these cities.  Press reports state the Florida Department of Transportation is preparing new ridership estimates for Governor Scott's review. 

Over the Christmas holiday, on C.R. 535 outside of Disney World, traffic stood in gridlock for much of the day.  While spending an aggravating half-hour getting through one intersection to cross C.R. 535, we checked GoogleMaps Traffic.  It depicted I-4 as one long red line, meaning traffic was at a standstill.  The tourist district needs options other than automobiles to address transportation (and consequent economic) dysfunction.     

State Senator Paula Dockery, a fiscal conservative and early supporter of Governor Scott, knows well how to scrutinize rail projects (as SunRail supporters can attest).  Yet she is on record supporting the High Speed Rail system.  She said that "private companies are talking about putting $300 million to $400 million on the table, which would cover the $200 million for construction not covered by the federal government."  John Mica, another fiscally conservative Republican, has likewise stated that the project is viable with private industry covering the 10% capital shortfall.  As part of his vetting, I hope Governor Scott is reaching out for their important perspectives.

General Electric, Siemens, Bombardier, and other corporations, appear interested in building and operating these systems.  They would not demonstrate this interest if they did not expect to turn a profit.  High speed rail systems internationally--including in Japan, Spain, France, Great Britain, and Taiwan--return profits, though that does not occur in every instance or in every year. 

Amrak's Acela line--the closest we have in the U.S. to High Speed Rail--turns a profit, even though it's government-run. 

Nothwithstanding the Reason report, now that the Federal Department of Transportation is redirecting to Florida $342 million in funding from Ohio and Wisconsin, the case for rejecting a Florida system has weakened.  Any decision to abandon this project will not shrink the Federal deficit, but will instead direct $2.4 billion intended for Florida to California and elsewhere.  Governor Scott is too smart to make that his legacy, given the option of making private industry shoulder the risks of proceeding.

Overstating SunRail's Cost to Orange County

Mayoral candidate Matthew Falconer sent a mailer accusing his opponents of voting "to spend $1.5 billion on a rail system we the people rejected by our vote."  (An earlier mailer claimed $1.6 billion.)  His opponents did, in fact, support SunRail, but they did not vote for anything close to a $1.5 billion Orange County budget obligation.  The SunRail Interlocal Agreement, excerpted below, shows Orange County's actual share of SunRail expenditures will amount to just over $40 million over seven years.

SunRail Interlocal Agreement, p. 14.

$40 million is a lot of money--and Orange County needs to monitor to make sure it's spent wisely--but the cost is in line with expenditures for typical road widening projects.  For example, the Planning and Zoning Board voted two months ago on a $75 million road widening project for Southeast Orange County--covering only four miles.  (SunRail will ultimately span 61 miles).  The Orlando Sentinel reported on August 5 that 3 miles of road widening in East Orange County is costing $27.8 million).  For another comparison, the Wekiva Parkway to I-4 interchange will cost about $450 million (slated to come from our tolls unless Congressman John Mica secures federal funds).  No politician is making any of these  expenditures a central campaign platform.   

I'm not certain how Matthew is calculating $1.5 billion for the SunRail system.  Here's my understanding of the numbers: capital construction, right-of-way, trains, and soft costs are expected to amount to just under $600 million, according to a 2009 economic impact report:



Aecom Economic Impact Final Report, p. 4.

SunRail is budgeting $615 million for these capital costs.  In addition to that figure, the Florida Department of Transportation is paying CSX Transportation, Inc. $432  million for the 61 miles of track, right-of-way, and facilities upgrades, (with a leaseback from CSX to operate freight trains at night).  This figure includes $150 million, which CSX committed to spending for upgrading track and facilities elsewhere in Florida to which CSX will divert freight trains. 

Second Amendment to the Contract for Sale and Purchase, March 29, 2010

In addition, FDOT is building five bridges to separate the CSX line from grade level in Alachua, Sumter, and Marion Counties for $214 million--work scheduled independent of SunRail.  I total all that ($615 million plus $432 million plus $214 million) to reach $1.25 billion.  (Matthew's book on p. 169 also computes $1.25 billion). The United States Department of Transportation is covering half with funds they'd otherwise send to other states.  I can assume only that Matthew's $1.5 billion SunRail figure includes years of maintenance and operating expenses (a figure rarely, if ever included when we discuss the cost of roads and highways) and potential cost overruns (although construction costs to local governments have declined with the recession). 

[UPDATE 9 10 10: Matthew informs me the $1.5 billion figure is the total cost to all local governments over twenty years according to the FDOT.  I'll post his entire email below.]

Congressman Mica, Senator Dan Webster (before he left office), and every conservative member of the Greater Orlando legislative delegation presumably compared the cost of the SunRail to the cost of right-of-way acquisition and construction of 61 comparable miles of I-4 lane capacity--SunRail cites $2.3 billion for 30 miles of I-4--and concluded SunRail's $1.2 billion shared price tag was worthy. There's a lot of collective wisdom in that group.

The Voters' Will

Matthew claims the voters rejected SunRail. They didn't. Seven years ago when Mobility 20/20 appeared on the ballot, voters rejected a different system, on a different route (not on the CSX line), intermixed with I-4 toll lanes (derided as "Lexus lanes"), and an acceleration of the State and County's voluminous roadbuilding schedule. Taking Matthew's rationale to its logical conclusion, to uphold the voters' intent, one would also need to oppose all the taxpayer subsidized roadbuilding, too, rejected by the voters. (Not a position I would take).

 
Property Taxes Not Slated for SunRail

Matthew filed a lawsuit calling SunRail "unconstitutional" on the grounds that operations and maintenance after seven years would require expenditures of property taxes without a popular vote.  Matthew faces an uphill legal battle.  He will need to demonstrate that the Interlocal Agreement removes local government funding flexibility.  The Interlocal Agreement does no such thing and, further, each local government's share of debt service must come from "non-ad volorem sources," that is, not from property taxes. 

Interlocal Agreement, pp. 21-22. 

I could not find anything in the agreement that would obligate local governments to fund operations and maintenance from property tax revenues.  In contrast, shifting more financial burden to road construction and maintenance, the only option Matthew would leave us, would increase long-term pressure to raise property tax millage rates.  Orange County's 4,500 miles of roads (which could stretch to Los Angeles) and State roads don't pay for themselves.  Their ongoing maintenance, resurfacing, and ultimate rebuilding costs reach truly staggering proportions.

"...shifting more financial burden to road construction and maintenance, the only option Matthew would leave us, would increase long-term pressure to raise property tax millage rates.  Orange County's 4,500 miles of roads...don't pay for themselves"

In any event, a proposed $2.00 daily rental car surcharge--less than the cost of a "butterbeer" at Universal's Wizarding World--would provide a plausible source of funding for Orange County's share of SunRail operations and maintenance beginning in the year 2020. 

Rail Successful in Phoenix Despite Sprawling Development Patterns

I agree with Matthew that sprawling development patterns are not conducive to rail transit.  However, a local traffic engineer who returned from sprawling Phoenix a couple weeks ago told me their new light rail system is successful despite surburban development patterns.  The following video confirms ridership exceeding expectations:


Phoenix’s METRO Light Rail Takes Flight from Streetfilms on Vimeo.


Ridership on rail transit systems throughout the nation is reaching near record levels (though down from when gasoline was $4.00 a gallon), as many links in the right-hand column demonstrate.  When I worked in Philadelphia after law school in the early 1990's, friends would drop off their cars in Cherry Hill or other locations in New Jersey and take the train to their jobs in Center City.  SunRail stops furthest from downtown Orlando have considerable parking planned.  It's better to under-promise and over-deliver, but all this does bode well for SunRail's ridership, if SunRail is done right. 

Time Away From Families

For many who spend around 50 hours annually sitting in I-4 traffic, SunRail can provide a congestion-free option.

Questions for Conservatives

For conservatives pondering all this, I'd pose the following questions:

1.  Where are the family values of leaving us with no choice but to spend the equivalent of more than a work week in traffic away from our families? 

2.  Where's the commitment to providing economic opportunities for small businesses?  Opposing rail also means opposing the mixed use, small-business dominated, transit oriented development SunRail would foster.  (Light rail lines in Charlotte, Portland, Seattle, and other cities have generated billions in such development around stations.  Check out pages 198-202 of the report at this link.) 

3.  Where's the commitment to our national security by leaving us overly dependent on Hugo Chavez, the Saudis, and other foreign sources for our transportation energy needs?  Does it serve our interests to send so many billions of our nation's wealth overseas?  Does our susceptibility to oil price shocks--such as those in 1973, 1979, and 2008--advance our economic interests? 

4.  Don't we want America to be #1?   Shouldn't we have a mass transportation system at least as good as the Czech Republic's? 

5.  Why did Ronald Reagan make no effort to curtail massive federally-funded expansion of the Washington, D.C. Metro system into suburban Virginia and Maryland during his presidency?   

Small businesses dominate Transit Oriented Development in Orange, NJ

 

Roads Alone Can't Solve Congestion

Before the recession, Orange County was spending roughly $355 million each year on capital roadbuilding projects.  Our Commissioners trimmed that to around $150 million as property tax receipts and impact fee revenues declined.  The reality is that, for nearly two decades, we haven't, and couldn't afford to build our way out of congestion with roads and highways alone:

We haven't come close to keeping pace with our increasing vehicle miles traveled, even while paving over Orange County with extremely wide, high speed roads making us #1 in the nation for pedestrian danger.  Matthew claims that SunRail will take away funding for road safety.  The reality is that we devote much of our road "improvement" funding to creating awful environments like University Boulevard, shown in the photo below, which place pedestrians (you can find at least two in the wrong place) in danger:

 

University Boulevard, Orange County, Florida

The bottom line is that, while SunRail won't eliminate congestion, I-4 will have more congestion without it.  Matthew is correct that passing trains will delay motorists heading to I-4.  However, SunRail is cutting those delays in half by using double-decker trains. 

Massive Government Subsidies and Market Intervention

Matthew tells audiences the fact they drove to the event where he is speaking, instead of using mass transit, is a "free market choice."  Cultural conservative William Lind would disagree.  He wrote a thoughtful article published this month on the conservative case for rail transit.  He argues that our rail-free, auto-dependent lifestyles are not a free market choice, but rather reflect massive, decades-long government intervention in the market consisting of road and highway building subsidies.  Until the 1950's, the nation's private rail carriers flourished--and paid taxes.  However, when the Government taxes one economic activity while subsidizing a competing one, the competing one will undoubtedly prevail.  You can find Lind's interesting article at this link. 

Here is a video in which Mr. Lind makes these arguments:

William Lind: A Conservative Voice For Public Transportation from Streetfilms on Vimeo.

UPDATE 9 10 10: I told Matthew that, in all fairness to him, I would post his Response:

From: Matthew Falconer

To: Richard Geller

Cc: Paula Dockery
Cc: Beth Dillaha

Sent: 9/8/2010 1:59:03 PM

Hi Rick. I was sent your blog on my overstating Sun Rail cost. The $1.5 billion is the cost to LOCAL governments over the first 20 years as provided for in the FDOT analysis. Given Miami's Tri-Rail loses $87 million a year and has 5 times the rider ship I think Sun Rail will repeat that expense.

Your love for new urbanism and mass transit is allowing you to look at facts that support your desired conclusion. I only look at facts. Our nation is $14 trillion in debt. Our state has a $7 billion budget deficit. Twenty five percent of mortgages in Orange County are in default and 75% of small business are losing money. Twenty Five percent of rental car cost is already tax.

Seminole County is seeking a tax increase to pay for mass transit and Orange County will after the elections. This will take $300 million out of our small business economy. I may have lost the election but I was not incorrect about one thing; we are killing the golden goose of small business.

It is hard for insiders, lawyers, engineers and others to understand how bad the economic conditions are. It can and will get worse if we continue to add to the tax burden of consumers and small business.

Matthew Falconer
Falcon Real Estate Solutions

SunRail and High Speed Rail Need to Connect

This map submitted to the United States Department of Transportation for high speed rail funding omits an intermodal connection to SunRail commuter trains.  The legislature approved SunRail after the submission.

Florida's application for High Speed Rail--submitted before the legislature approved SunRail--proposed two intermodal stations in the Orlando area for connections to other transporatation--one at Orlando International Airport and the other at the Orange County Convention Center.  The application, however, left open the possibility of an intermodal connection with SunRail.  Final plans should include it. 

United States Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood wrote on his blog about the various high speed rail grants:

We know that people already want to travel between these cities; we're here to begin making that downtown-to-downtown travel significantly easier, faster, and more productive.

The Florida Department of Transportation's representative stated to the Florida High Speed Rail Commission, "[T]he SunRail project ties well with the overall objective of high speed rail where you do need to have interconnectivity with the local systems in order for both systems to be productive and beneficial to the communities."

Orlando Sentinel columnist Mike Thomas lampooned the notion of people driving to the Orlando International Airport and paying exorbidant parking fees to take the train to Tampa.  A connection between SunRail and High Speed Rail would eliminate the need for many to park at the airport. 

The possibility of Lynx bus service between SunRail and the Convention Center and Airport seems wasteful.  The point of rail systems is to eliminate sitting in traffic, not to needlessly create more traffic, especially when the systems will cross each other. 

The other proposal for Airport/SunRail/Convention Center transit--a light rail system running parallel to the High Speed Rail line--seems redundant and wasteful.

A connection between SunRail and High Speed Rail would enable downtown Orlando workers and many Central Florida residents to travel by rail to Disney, the Convention Center, the Airport, and downtown Tampa, bypassing our traffic-choked highways.  Likewise, residents from Tampa and Lakeland should have an ability to travel exclusively by rail to downtown Orlando, Winter Park, and beyond. 

The significant ridership and revenue that both systems can generate to each other overwhelms the criticism that adding a SunRail intermodal stop will slow High Speed Rail's travel time.  High Speed Rail trains won't travel anywhere near 160 mph between the Airport and Convention Center, with or without a SunRail stop.  Tourist taking High Speed Rail from the airport may endure an extra two or three minutes for a SunRail stop--a pittance compared to the time they will spend in line at Disney World.  The officials who will make the final decisions on intermodal connectivity should ensure that these two very expensive transportation investments provide maximum service and benefit to the people who live and work in Central Florida.   

Florida Senate Vote Removes Last Barrier to Rail Transit

Click to enlarge

The Florida Senate's lopsided 27-10 vote yesterday removed the last barrier to rail transit in Central Florida.

If the links in the right-hand column under "Rail Transit Ridership Surging" hold true, SunRail's ridership will exceed expectations.  Estimates place ridership at about 7,500 daily passengers after completion of Phase I. One lane of I-4 during rush hour accommodates about 2,500 vehicles.

SunRail's capital cost to State and Local government--$600 million--is roughly the cost of building a freeway cloverleaf interchange. I don't recall comparable debate over constructing the 429/Florida Turnpike interchange a few years ago or any similar highway infrastructure.  We accept spending tax dollars on roads without serious question.  (UPDATE 9/21/10--The Orlando Sentinel is reporting the cost of connecting the Wekiva Parkway to I-4 is $450 million.) 

The debate over SunRail, Tri-Rail, and rail transit in general revealed a fundamental misunderstanding about transportation subsidies.  Opponents describe highway and road spending as an "investment" while describing mass transit spending as a "subsidy" for "losses." The reality is that taxpayers highly subsidize all forms of transportation. According to a research arm of the Pew Charitable Trust, at least 50% of federal highway spending is subsidized (not counting gas taxes, classified as user fees). We "lose" quite a bit on roads, even locally. A few years ago, Orange County was spending $350 million annually on road construction and maintenance. That figure was down to around $155 million the last time I checked, but still represents a large sum, and does not include the roadway spending of all Central Florida muncipalities. The cost of drive-only sprawl is not cheap.

Fiscally-conservative members of the Central Florida legislative delegation--Andy Gardiner, Eric Eisnaugle, Lee Constantine, Steve Precourt, and, last year, Dan Webster--have all supported SunRail.  SunRail is cost effective compared to acquiring right-of-way, building, and maintaining 60 miles of interstate highway lane. 

We don't have the resources to build enough roads to support demand as the decades unfold.  Between 1980-2000, vehicle miles traveled increased 76%, while highway lanes increased 1.5%.  Our drive-only sprawl patterns have resulted in the congestion that wastes more than a week of our time every year, imposes enormous hidden costs on the economy, and takes us away from our families.  Either we pursue the vision in the map above, or it gets much worse.

50 mph sign mocking drivers at a standstill on I-4.

The cost of reducing hours of delay in Orlando this decade has included the addition of lanes on the interior median of I-4, construction of the 429 and 419 beltways, re-construction of the John Young Parkway interchange, partial reconstruction of the 408/I-4 interchange, and two economic recessions.  We still spend more than a week of our lives every year sitting in congestion. 

Enormous highway capacity building projects in Central Florida cannot keep pace with demand. 

Construction of the 429 and 417 beltways have taken vehicles off Central Florida's arterial roads, helping to hold vehicle miles traveled fairly steady on arterials this decade, but at a cost to drivers in expressway tolls.  The Orlando/Orange County Expressway authority collected about $205 million in tolls for its entire system in the fiscal year ending June, 2009. 

The hidden cost of traffic congestion is over $800 million annually for the Orlando area, according to the Texas Transportation Institute's assumptions.  

Click HERE for the data underlying these charts.   

Click HERE for a MetroPlan transit vision map.